Speaker
Description
Norway lacks oversight of ground-source thermal energy in its national energy budget, largely due to (a) the absence of regulatory measures for automatic heat extraction reporting and (b) undervaluing this heat, since it is free and untaxed. Its contribution to the national energy stability is therefore overlooked. Additionally, since energy wells are largely invisible with minimal areal footprint, it is overlooked in land-use planning.
Without a comprehensive national ground-source heat database, estimates of its contributions rely on top-down approaches. To improve accuracy, large and small ground-source heat systems are analyzed to develop conversion factors, allowing for thermal power and annual energy estimates based on drilling data from the NGU Granada database, supplemented by an in-house Midttømme database. These estimates are cross-referenced with data from the national heat pump association (NOVAP) to reflect heat pump sales.
Annual assessments indicate that, in 2023 alone, 50 MW of thermal power, generating 170 GWh of heat, was added through 4,300 newly drilled wells. Since the 1980s, ground-source wells have contributed a peak capacity of approximately 620 MW, producing around 2.0 TWh of energy annually. When factoring in heat pump sales, these estimates increase to 728 MW of power and 2.55 TWh of annual heat production, though actual values may be higher due to underreporting. These estimates are sensitive to assumptions around heat extraction per meter drilled, annual capacity factors, and the exclusion of seasonal storage.
Expanding ground-source heat solutions could be further accelerated. Current pricing mechanisms do not equitably distribute costs among stakeholders who benefit from this resource. With escalating climate change impacts, stringent emission targets, and the ongoing nature and material scarcity crises, only select energy technologies can be deployed at scale.
The value of ground-source heat is estimated for the stake holders:
a) Lower electricity demand for building owners
b) Reduced infrastructure demand for regional energy providers
c) Reduce price fluctuations, supporting decarbonization and industrial growth nationally
d) Lower climate emissions and enhanced energy transfer capacity between countries
Assessing the full societal value of ground-source heat can inform new cost-sharing mechanisms to bridge gaps between upfront costs and long-term benefits.
